Once tested and proven, insulate good ideas from reality.
Running
I recently spoke with a very successful marathon runner who commonly wins races and consistently beats his own times. I asked for his tips, and he shared two:
“The first thing I do is run faster on the uphills. Everyone else slows down because of how difficult it is, and this is a great time to gain ground. The second thing I do is run faster on the downhills. Everyone else slows down because of how fast you go anyways on the slope down, and this is a great time to gain ground.”
I was looking for actual tips and this person (not even concisely) told me it’s just about running faster.
Before passing judgment too quickly and writing off this feedback, I paused. Amusingly, the point was not to run faster, but more so, that the uphill and downhill should have no impact on how you think about the run.
You know you need to run fast, consistently, for the whole marathon.
This is a central note that cannot possibly be wrong; it is a “good idea,” and it is correct. It’s not overly useful as a tactic, but it is the rejection of the notion that the hill changes anything at all.
Regardless of these external hill stimuli, the ground truth is identical: run as fast as you can.
Business
I listened to a shareholder meeting for a tech company in the heat of the tech recession of 2023. The CFO was being questioned by the shareholders about his plan going into unstable economic conditions.
We heard questions about imminent layoffs, changes in strategy, refocusing on core business, and the list continues. The CFO (who I’m paraphrasing here) replied with a terse note:
“We will do as we have always done whether it was through the good times or the bad. We will continue with the disciplined deployment of capital, allocating resources to where it is most needed and most likely to generate substantive returns.”
Similar to the runner, I felt indignant at the fact that no real insight was shared. I was wrong again for the exact same reason.
In the natural cycles of the market, businesses and executives busy themselves with the minutia of reacting to market conditions, changing plans, adjusting strategies, and levying layoffs. In the most recent boom through the pandemic, tech companies saw extreme growth and over-hired.
When things slowed and shareholders questioned productivity, drastic changes were made yet again. Large-scale lay-offs, auxiliary services being cut, and a “year of efficiency”, are all reactionary measures to an ever-changing economic landscape.
However, in this meeting, the CFO highlighted their disregard for external stimuli and instead employed a consistently valuable (and diligent) strategy.
Regardless of these external economic stimuli, the ground truth remains identical: be disciplined in your deployment of capital.
Ideas
Ideas need maturation, and that aging process involves taking an idea and foisting it into reality where it faces friction. Weak ideas are brittle and snap, whereas strong ideas come out even stronger.
Increasingly, the swings of trends and fads are bringing massive changes to ideas and decision-making. Significant time and energy is spent focused on minute optimizations of a new process, rather than recognizing the timelessness of core ideas.
A good idea should not fluctuate with the changing weather, but should instead be insulated against it. Inside, behind thick walls and locked doors. Ready to mobilize against the world, heedless to the external stimuli that only exist in the ephemeral territory of the immediate.
Run fast. Be disciplined. Good ideas are good: now insulate them.
This should be read by anyone that wants to invest. I say this because, for those who have any sort of skin in the investing game, can attest that it's extremely hard to stay true to your strategy and insulate your initial ideas of investing when things are in the red.
I also love the directness of your writing, and overall how you dictate your ideas. I appreciate concise language. Good work!